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V-varen Nagasaki vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
Preview
10:00
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
5/29/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 37Peace Stadium
Big match
47%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
27%26%47%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki27%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.06
Machida Zelvia
1.48

Machida Zelvia creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 43 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.20
Machida Zelvia
1.40

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.56
Machida Zelvia
0.93

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
53%
V-varen Nagasaki or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
73%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
10%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
65%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
29%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
9%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
77%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
43%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
37%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.20 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
27%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
47%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • V-varen Nagasaki win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Nagasaki
LWWLD
Zelvia
DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V-varen Nagasaki face Machida Zelvia (J1 League)

J1 League returns with V-varen Nagasaki hosting Machida Zelvia. Match starts May 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

V-varen Nagasaki host Machida Zelvia at Peace Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.