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V-varen Nagasaki vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 2
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
9/23/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 36Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki41%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.39
Machida Zelvia
1.22

V-varen Nagasaki creates 14% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 127 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.65
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.13
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
67%
V-varen Nagasaki or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
59%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
19%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
75%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
40%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
16%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
70%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
34%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
55%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
41%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
33%

V-varen Nagasaki at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: V-varen Nagasaki 0–6 Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat V-varen Nagasaki 6-0 in J2 League on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Transcosmos Stadium in Isahaya.