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V-varen Nagasaki vs JEF United Chiba — J2 League 2018

V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
5/25/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Transcosmos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

V-varen Nagasaki43%
×Draw26%
JEF United Chiba31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

V-varen Nagasaki
1.43
JEF United Chiba
1.18

V-varen Nagasaki creates 21% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 165 away

creates per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.65
JEF United Chiba
1.23

allows per match

V-varen Nagasaki
1.13
JEF United Chiba
1.21

finishing

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par
JEF United Chiba+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

V-varen Nagasaki ↓

JEF United Chiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

V-varen Nagasaki or draw
69%
V-varen Nagasaki or JEF United Chiba
74%
Draw or JEF United Chiba
57%

Winning margin

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
20%
JEF United Chiba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
76%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
42%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
17%
JEF United Chiba 1+ goals
69%
JEF United Chiba 2+ goals
33%
JEF United Chiba 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
58%
JEF United Chiba (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

V-varen Nagasaki at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

JEF United Chiba away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 165 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.65 + JEF United Chiba defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

JEF United Chiba attack 1.23 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

V-varen Nagasaki scores more
43%
level
26%
JEF United Chiba scores more
31%

V-varen Nagasaki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "V-varen Nagasaki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: V-varen Nagasaki vs JEF United Chiba

V-varen Nagasaki beat JEF United Chiba 1-0 in J2 League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Transcosmos Stadium in Isahaya.