Vængir Júpiters 2–1 Vídir: Result & Stats | Cup

Vængir Júpiters

2 – 1

Vídir

E. Pali 77', 36'

I. Aevarsson 40'

6/13/2020

Cup · 2nd RoundFjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vængir Júpiters50%

×Draw19%

Vídir31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vængir JúpitersExpected goals in this matchVídir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

2.13

Vængir Júpiters

2.68

Vídir

2.13

Vængir Júpiters creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

3.56

creates per match

1.60

2.67

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters

3.56

Vídir

1.60

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters

2.67

Vídir

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par

Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

Vídir →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw

69%

Vængir Júpiters or Vídir

81%

Draw or Vídir

50%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+

31%

Vídir wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals

93%

Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals

74%

Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals

49%

Vídir 1+ goals

88%

Vídir 2+ goals

63%

Vídir 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)

61%

Vídir (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 3.56, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 3.56 + Vídir defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.68

Vídir attack 1.60 + Vængir Júpiters defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more

50%

level

19%

Vídir scores more

31%

Vængir Júpiters at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vængir Júpiters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

E. Pali

40'

I. Aevarsson

77'

E. Pali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff