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Vængir Júpiters vs Throttur Reykjavik — Cup 2019

Vængir Júpiters
Vængir Júpiters
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Throttur Reykjavik
Throttur Reykjavik
S. Arnthorsson 59'
I. Ivarsson 90+2', 72'
S. Kristinsson 62'
C. Rolin 53'
S. Bjornsson 45+1', 42'
J. Pettersen 39'
4/13/2024CupCup · 2nd RoundFjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vængir Júpiters26%
×Draw17%
Throttur Reykjavik57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vængir Júpiters
2.21
Throttur Reykjavik
3.26

Throttur Reykjavik creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters
3.56
Throttur Reykjavik
3.86

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters
2.67
Throttur Reykjavik
0.86

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par
Throttur Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

Throttur Reykjavik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–36%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–3 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw
43%
Vængir Júpiters or Throttur Reykjavik
83%
Draw or Throttur Reykjavik
74%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+
13%
Throttur Reykjavik wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals
89%
Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals
65%
Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals
38%
Throttur Reykjavik 1+ goals
96%
Throttur Reykjavik 2+ goals
83%
Throttur Reykjavik 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)
31%
Throttur Reykjavik (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 3.56, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Throttur Reykjavik away — creates 3.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 3.56 + Throttur Reykjavik defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Throttur Reykjavik attack 3.86 + Vængir Júpiters defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more
26%
level
17%
Throttur Reykjavik scores more
57%

Throttur Reykjavik at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Throttur Reykjavik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
J. Pettersen
42'
S. Bjornsson
45+1'
S. Bjornsson
53'
C. Rolin
59'
S. Arnthorsson
62'
S. Kristinsson
72'
I. Ivarsson
90+2'
I. Ivarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vængir Júpiters 1–7 Throttur Reykjavik

Throttur Reykjavik beat Vængir Júpiters 7-1 in Cup on April 13, 2024.

Goals: J. Pettersen (39'), S. Bjornsson (42', 45+1'), C. Rolin (53'), S. Arnthorsson (59'), S. Kristinsson (62'), I. Ivarsson (72', 90+2').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur Gervigras in Reykjavík.