Vængir Júpiters 1–8 KR Reykjavik: Result & Stats

Vængir Júpiters

1 – 8

HT: 1 – 2

KR Reykjavik

6/23/2020

Cup · 16th FinalsEgilshöll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Vængir Júpiters41%

×Draw18%

KR Reykjavik41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vængir JúpitersExpected goals in this matchKR Reykjavik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

2.87

Vængir Júpiters

2.88

KR Reykjavik

2.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

3.56

creates per match

3.07

2.67

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters

3.56

KR Reykjavik

3.07

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters

2.67

KR Reykjavik

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par

KR Reykjavik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes89
No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

KR Reykjavik →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–41%

1–01%

1–13%

1–24%

1–34%

1–43%

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–14%

3–26%

3–35%

3–44%

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–34%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

66%34%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw

59%

Vængir Júpiters or KR Reykjavik

82%

Draw or KR Reykjavik

59%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+

25%

KR Reykjavik wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals

94%

Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals

78%

Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals

54%

KR Reykjavik 1+ goals

94%

KR Reykjavik 2+ goals

77%

KR Reykjavik 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)

50%

KR Reykjavik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

86%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 3.56, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

KR Reykjavik away — creates 3.07, concedes 2.21 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 3.56 + KR Reykjavik defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.88

KR Reykjavik attack 3.07 + Vængir Júpiters defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more

41%

level

18%

KR Reykjavik scores more

41%

Vængir Júpiters at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vængir Júpiters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff