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Vængir Júpiters vs KH — Cup 2019

Vængir Júpiters
Vængir Júpiters
AET
4 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
KH
KH
Unknown 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 41', 40', 38', 19'
Unknown 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen), 75', 67', 54', 30'
3/30/2023CupCup · 1st RoundFjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vængir Júpiters68%
×Draw15%
KH17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vængir Júpiters
3.42
KH
1.76

Vængir Júpiters creates 94% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters
3.56
KH
0.86

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters
2.67
KH
3.29

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par
KH+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

KH →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw
83%
Vængir Júpiters or KH
85%
Draw or KH
32%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+
49%
KH wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals
97%
Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals
85%
Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals
64%
KH 1+ goals
83%
KH 2+ goals
52%
KH 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)
80%
KH (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 3.56, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

KH away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 3.56 + KH defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 3.42

KH attack 0.86 + Vængir Júpiters defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more
68%
level
15%
KH scores more
17%

Vængir Júpiters at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vængir Júpiters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
30'
38'
40'
41'
54'
67'
75'
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Missed penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vængir Júpiters vs KH

Vængir Júpiters and KH drew 4-4 in Cup on March 30, 2023.

Goals: ? (19', 30', 38', 40', 41', 54', 67', 75', 120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen).

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur Gervigras in Reykjavík.