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Vængir Júpiters vs Hörður Í. — Cup 2020

Vængir Júpiters
Vængir Júpiters
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Hörður Í.
Hörður Í.
E. Hauksson 86', 43'
J. Svavarsson 83'
A. Gudjohnsen 59'
A. Heimission 3'
S. Arnthorsson 1'
R. Eiriksson 73'
G. Jonasson 24'
4/6/2024CupCup · 1st RoundFjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vængir Júpiters74%
×Draw13%
Hörður Í.14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vængir Júpiters
3.94
Hörður Í.
1.75

Vængir Júpiters creates 125% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters
2.88
Hörður Í.
0.50

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters
3.00
Hörður Í.
5.00

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par
Hörður Í.+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

Hörður Í. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–26%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw
86%
Vængir Júpiters or Hörður Í.
87%
Draw or Hörður Í.
26%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+
56%
Hörður Í. wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals
98%
Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals
89%
Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals
72%
Hörður Í. 1+ goals
83%
Hörður Í. 2+ goals
52%
Hörður Í. 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)
84%
Hörður Í. (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 2.88, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

Hörður Í. away — creates 0.50, concedes 5.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 2.88 + Hörður Í. defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.94

Hörður Í. attack 0.50 + Vængir Júpiters defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more
74%
level
13%
Hörður Í. scores more
14%

Vængir Júpiters at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Vængir Júpiters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
S. Arnthorsson
3'
A. Heimission
24'
G. Jonasson
43'
E. Hauksson
59'
A. Gudjohnsen
73'
R. Eiriksson
83'
J. Svavarsson
86'
E. Hauksson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Vængir Júpiters 6–2 Hörður Í.

Vængir Júpiters beat Hörður Í. 6-2 in Cup on April 6, 2024.

Goals: S. Arnthorsson (1'), A. Heimission (3'), G. Jonasson (24'), E. Hauksson (43', 86'), A. Gudjohnsen (59'), R. Eiriksson (73'), J. Svavarsson (83').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur Gervigras in Reykjavík.