Vængir Júpiters 7–0 Álafoss: Result & Stats | Cup

Vængir Júpiters

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Álafoss

G. Gudmundsson 90' (pen), 77', 63', 33'

A. Anbari 87'

A. Bjarnason 82'

K. Arnarsson 25'

4/8/2022

Cup · 1st RoundFjölnisvöllur Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vængir Júpiters82%

×Draw10%

Álafoss8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vængir JúpitersExpected goals in this matchÁlafoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.45

1.50

Vængir Júpiters

4.45

Álafoss

1.50

Vængir Júpiters creates 197% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

3.56

creates per match

0.33

2.67

allows per match

5.33

creates per match

Vængir Júpiters

3.56

Álafoss

0.33

allows per match

Vængir Júpiters

2.67

Álafoss

5.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vængir Júpiters+0.00on par

Álafoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vængir Júpiters ↓

Álafoss →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–18%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Vængir Júpiters or draw

92%

Vængir Júpiters or Álafoss

90%

Draw or Álafoss

18%

Winning margin

Vængir Júpiters wins by 2+

67%

Álafoss wins by 2+

Team goals

Vængir Júpiters 1+ goals

99%

Vængir Júpiters 2+ goals

92%

Vængir Júpiters 3+ goals

79%

Álafoss 1+ goals

78%

Álafoss 2+ goals

44%

Álafoss 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Vængir Júpiters (draw refunded)

91%

Álafoss (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vængir Júpiters at home — creates 3.56, concedes 2.67 · 9 matches

Álafoss away — creates 0.33, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vængir Júpiters attack 3.56 + Álafoss defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 4.45

Álafoss attack 0.33 + Vængir Júpiters defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Vængir Júpiters scores more

82%

level

10%

Álafoss scores more

Vængir Júpiters at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Vængir Júpiters will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

K. Arnarsson

33'

G. Gudmundsson

63'

G. Gudmundsson

77'

G. Gudmundsson

82'

A. Bjarnason

87'

A. Anbari

90'

G. GudmundssonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff