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Uzwil vs Balzers — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Uzwil
Uzwil
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Balzers
Balzers
3/16/20241. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Kunststoffrasenplatz Rüti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Uzwil54%
×Draw21%
Balzers25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzwil
2.04
Balzers
1.33

Uzwil creates 53% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 41 away

creates per match

Uzwil
1.47
Balzers
1.24

allows per match

Uzwil
1.43
Balzers
2.61

finishing

Uzwil+0.00on par
Balzers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzwil ↓

Balzers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Uzwil or draw
75%
Uzwil or Balzers
79%
Draw or Balzers
46%

Winning margin

Uzwil wins by 2+
32%
Balzers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uzwil 1+ goals
87%
Uzwil 2+ goals
60%
Uzwil 3+ goals
33%
Balzers 1+ goals
74%
Balzers 2+ goals
38%
Balzers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Uzwil (draw refunded)
68%
Balzers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzwil at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 58 matches

Balzers away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.61 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzwil attack 1.47 + Balzers defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.04

Balzers attack 1.24 + Uzwil defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Uzwil scores more
54%
level
21%
Balzers scores more
25%

Uzwil at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uzwil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uzwil 2 – 2 Balzers

Uzwil and Balzers drew 2-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Kunststoffrasenplatz Rüti in Uzwil.