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Uzhhorod vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Uzhhorod
Uzhhorod
CANC
00:00
Obolon'-Brovar II
Obolon'-Brovar II
5/10/2020Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Group A - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Uzhhorod48%
×Draw25%
Obolon'-Brovar II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzhhorod
1.62
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.15

Uzhhorod creates 41% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 22 away

creates per match

Uzhhorod
1.42
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.05

allows per match

Uzhhorod
1.24
Obolon'-Brovar II
1.82

finishing

Uzhhorod+0.00on par
Obolon'-Brovar II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzhhorod ↓

Obolon'-Brovar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Uzhhorod or draw
73%
Uzhhorod or Obolon'-Brovar II
75%
Draw or Obolon'-Brovar II
52%

Winning margin

Uzhhorod wins by 2+
25%
Obolon'-Brovar II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Uzhhorod 1+ goals
80%
Uzhhorod 2+ goals
48%
Uzhhorod 3+ goals
22%
Obolon'-Brovar II 1+ goals
68%
Obolon'-Brovar II 2+ goals
32%
Obolon'-Brovar II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Uzhhorod (draw refunded)
64%
Obolon'-Brovar II (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzhhorod at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

Obolon'-Brovar II away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzhhorod attack 1.42 + Obolon'-Brovar II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

Obolon'-Brovar II attack 1.05 + Uzhhorod defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Uzhhorod scores more
48%
level
25%
Obolon'-Brovar II scores more
27%

Uzhhorod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Uzhhorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uzhhorod vs Obolon'-Brovar II — Match Preview

Uzhhorod face Obolon'-Brovar II on May 10, 2020 in this Druha Liga - Group A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.