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Uzhhorod vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Uzhhorod
Uzhhorod
CANC
14:00
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
5/14/2022Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 29Stadion Avanhard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Uzhhorod17%
×Draw23%
Alians Lypova Dolyna60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzhhorod
0.83
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.81

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 118% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 25 away

creates per match

Uzhhorod
0.50
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Uzhhorod
2.10
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Uzhhorod+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzhhorod ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Uzhhorod or draw
40%
Uzhhorod or Alians Lypova Dolyna
77%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
83%

Winning margin

Uzhhorod wins by 2+
5%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Uzhhorod 1+ goals
56%
Uzhhorod 2+ goals
20%
Uzhhorod 3+ goals
5%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
84%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
54%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Uzhhorod (draw refunded)
22%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzhhorod at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzhhorod attack 0.50 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.83

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Uzhhorod defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Uzhhorod scores more
17%
level
23%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
60%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Uzhhorod face Alians Lypova Dolyna (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Uzhhorod hosting Alians Lypova Dolyna. Match starts May 14, 2022. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Uzhhorod host Alians Lypova Dolyna at Stadion Avanhard.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.