Uzbekistan 2–1 Thailand: Result & Stats | Asian Cup

Uzbekistan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Thailand

1/30/2024

Asian Cup · Round of 16Al Janoub Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uzbekistan42%

×Draw34%

Thailand23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UzbekistanExpected goals in this matchThailand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.64

Uzbekistan

0.97

Thailand

0.64

Uzbekistan creates 52% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

0.67

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Uzbekistan

1.33

Thailand

0.60

allows per match

Uzbekistan

0.67

Thailand

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Thailand+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan ↓

Thailand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Uzbekistan or draw

77%

Uzbekistan or Thailand

66%

Draw or Thailand

58%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan wins by 2+

16%

Thailand wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Uzbekistan 1+ goals

62%

Uzbekistan 2+ goals

25%

Uzbekistan 3+ goals

7%

Thailand 1+ goals

47%

Thailand 2+ goals

14%

Thailand 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)

64%

Thailand (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Thailand away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan attack 1.33 + Thailand defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Thailand attack 0.60 + Uzbekistan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Uzbekistan scores more

42%

level

34%

Thailand scores more

23%

Uzbekistan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff