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Uzbekistan vs Oman — Asian Cup 2019

Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Oman
Oman
E. Shomurodov 85'
O. Akhmedov 34'
Muhsen Al Ghassani 72'
1/9/2019Asian CupAsian Cup · Group Stage - 1Sharjah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan41%
×Draw26%
Oman32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan
1.38
Oman
1.18

Uzbekistan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan
1.00
Oman
0.75

allows per match

Uzbekistan
1.60
Oman
1.75

finishing

Uzbekistan+0.00on par
Oman+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan ↓

Oman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Uzbekistan or draw
68%
Uzbekistan or Oman
74%
Draw or Oman
59%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan wins by 2+
19%
Oman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Uzbekistan 1+ goals
75%
Uzbekistan 2+ goals
40%
Uzbekistan 3+ goals
16%
Oman 1+ goals
69%
Oman 2+ goals
33%
Oman 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)
56%
Oman (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Oman away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan attack 1.00 + Oman defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Oman attack 0.75 + Uzbekistan defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Uzbekistan scores more
41%
level
26%
Oman scores more
32%

Uzbekistan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
Jaloliddin Masharipov
34'
O. Akhmedov
58'
Ignatiy Nesterov
59'
D. Khamdamov← S. Rashidov
67'
Muhsen Al Ghassani← Khalid Khalifa Al Hajri
72'
Muhsen Al Ghassani↳ Ali Al Busaidi
79'
I. Alibaev← J. Masharipov
83'
E. Shomurodov← M. Bikmaev
85'
E. Shomurodov↳ I. Alibaev
86'
Mohammed Al Ghassani← Mohsin Al Khaldi
87'
Salah Al-Yahyaei← Jameel Al Yahmadi
90'
Egor Krimets

Possession

41%Uzbekistan

Shots

4Uzbekistan

Statistics

UzbekistanOman
Overview
41%Possession59%
4Total Shots10
2Corners8
12Fouls7
Shots
4Total Shots10
3On Target3
1Off Target7
Passing
41%Possession59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls7
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Uzbekistan vs Oman

Uzbekistan beat Oman 2-1 in Asian Cup on January 9, 2019.

Goals: O. Akhmedov (34'), Muhsen Al Ghassani (72'), E. Shomurodov (85').

Oman controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 4.

The match was played at Sharjah Stadium in Sharjah.