Uzbekistan 2–0 Kuwait: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Uzbekistan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Kuwait

Khozhimat Erkinov 19'

Eldor Shomurodov 10'

10/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Uzbekistan62%

×Draw23%

Kuwait15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UzbekistanExpected goals in this matchKuwait

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.74

Uzbekistan

1.77

Kuwait

0.74

Uzbekistan creates 139% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 12 away

1.61

creates per match

0.58

0.90

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Uzbekistan

1.61

Kuwait

0.58

allows per match

Uzbekistan

0.90

Kuwait

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uzbekistan+0.00on par

Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan ↓

Kuwait →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Uzbekistan or draw

85%

Uzbekistan or Kuwait

77%

Draw or Kuwait

38%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan wins by 2+

36%

Kuwait wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Uzbekistan 1+ goals

83%

Uzbekistan 2+ goals

53%

Uzbekistan 3+ goals

26%

Kuwait 1+ goals

52%

Kuwait 2+ goals

17%

Kuwait 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)

80%

Kuwait (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Kuwait away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan attack 1.61 + Kuwait defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kuwait attack 0.58 + Uzbekistan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Uzbekistan scores more

62%

level

23%

Kuwait scores more

15%

Uzbekistan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Eldor Shomurodov

19'

Khozhimat Erkinov

21'

Azizbek Turgunboev← Abbosbek Fayzullaev

27'

Athbi Shehab← Abdulrahman Al Rashidi

58'

Reda Hani

61'

Khaled Al Mershed← Reda Hani

61'

Talal Al Qaisi← Salman Al Awadhi

61'

Abdullah Al Awadhi← Rashed Al Dosari

63'

Otabek ShukurovMissed penalty

68'

Umar Eshmuradov← Alibek Davronov

68'

Azizjon Ganiev← Otabek Shukurov

68'

Igor Sergeev← Eldor Shomurodov

79'

Rustam Ashurmatov

79'

Fawaz Ayedh Al Otaibi← Moath Al Enezi

86'

Abdurauf Buriev← Akmal Mozgovoy

86'

Oston Urunov← Khozhiakbar Alizhonov

Possession

Statistics

UzbekistanKuwait

Overview

43%Possession57%

4Corners2

12Fouls7

Shots

4On Target4

5Off Target1

1Blocked1

Passing

43%Possession57%

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1