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Uzbekistan vs Armenia — Friendlies 2026

Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan
CANC
00:00
Armenia
Armenia
3/26/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Uzbekistan67%
×Draw18%
Armenia15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan
2.35
Armenia
1.00

Uzbekistan creates 135% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 10 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan
1.61
Armenia
1.10

allows per match

Uzbekistan
0.90
Armenia
3.10

finishing

Uzbekistan+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Uzbekistan or draw
85%
Uzbekistan or Armenia
82%
Draw or Armenia
33%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan wins by 2+
44%
Armenia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Uzbekistan 1+ goals
90%
Uzbekistan 2+ goals
68%
Uzbekistan 3+ goals
41%
Armenia 1+ goals
63%
Armenia 2+ goals
26%
Armenia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan (draw refunded)
82%
Armenia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 31 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan attack 1.61 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.35

Armenia attack 1.10 + Uzbekistan defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Uzbekistan scores more
67%
level
18%
Armenia scores more
15%

Uzbekistan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Uzbekistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Uzbekistan host Armenia

March 26, 2020: Uzbekistan take on Armenia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Uzbekistan host Armenia at Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.