Uzbekistan U20 W 1–4 India U20 W: Result & Stats

Uzbekistan U20 W

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

India U20 W

S. Dekanbaeva 39'

N. Sibani Devi 83', 30'

Neha 72'

R. Sulanjana 66'

7/16/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U20 W29%

×Draw21%

India U20 W49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uzbekistan U20 WExpected goals in this matchIndia U20 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.06

Uzbekistan U20 W

1.56

India U20 W

2.06

India U20 W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

2.25

1.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Uzbekistan U20 W

1.88

India U20 W

2.25

allows per match

Uzbekistan U20 W

1.88

India U20 W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uzbekistan U20 W+0.00on par

India U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U20 W ↓

India U20 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U20 W or draw

51%

Uzbekistan U20 W or India U20 W

79%

Draw or India U20 W

71%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U20 W wins by 2+

14%

India U20 W wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U20 W 1+ goals

79%

Uzbekistan U20 W 2+ goals

46%

Uzbekistan U20 W 3+ goals

21%

India U20 W 1+ goals

87%

India U20 W 2+ goals

61%

India U20 W 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U20 W (draw refunded)

37%

India U20 W (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U20 W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

India U20 W away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U20 W attack 1.88 + India U20 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

India U20 W attack 2.25 + Uzbekistan U20 W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Uzbekistan U20 W scores more

29%

level

21%

India U20 W scores more

49%

India U20 W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "India U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

39'

66'

72'

83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff