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Uzbekistan U20 W vs Azerbaijan U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Uzbekistan U20 W
Uzbekistan U20 W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Azerbaijan U19 W
Azerbaijan U19 W
2/4/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U20 W57%
×Draw20%
Azerbaijan U19 W22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U20 W
2.19
Azerbaijan U19 W
1.31

Uzbekistan U20 W creates 67% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U20 W
1.88
Azerbaijan U19 W
0.75

allows per match

Uzbekistan U20 W
1.88
Azerbaijan U19 W
2.50

finishing

Uzbekistan U20 W+0.00on par
Azerbaijan U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U20 W ↓

Azerbaijan U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U20 W or draw
78%
Uzbekistan U20 W or Azerbaijan U19 W
80%
Draw or Azerbaijan U19 W
43%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U20 W wins by 2+
35%
Azerbaijan U19 W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U20 W 1+ goals
89%
Uzbekistan U20 W 2+ goals
64%
Uzbekistan U20 W 3+ goals
37%
Azerbaijan U19 W 1+ goals
73%
Azerbaijan U19 W 2+ goals
38%
Azerbaijan U19 W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U20 W (draw refunded)
72%
Azerbaijan U19 W (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U20 W at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Azerbaijan U19 W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U20 W attack 1.88 + Azerbaijan U19 W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.19

Azerbaijan U19 W attack 0.75 + Uzbekistan U20 W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Uzbekistan U20 W scores more
57%
level
20%
Azerbaijan U19 W scores more
22%

Uzbekistan U20 W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Uzbekistan U20 W 2–3 Azerbaijan U19 W

Azerbaijan U19 W beat Uzbekistan U20 W 3-2 in Friendlies Women on February 4, 2026.