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Uzbekistan U20 vs Turkmenistan U20 — Friendlies 2018

Uzbekistan U20
Uzbekistan U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Turkmenistan U20
Turkmenistan U20
A. Amanov 6' (OG)
V. Drazdurdyyev 1'
6/12/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U2047%
×Draw24%
Turkmenistan U2029%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U20
1.68
Turkmenistan U20
1.25

Uzbekistan U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U20
1.75
Turkmenistan U20
2.00

allows per match

Uzbekistan U20
0.50
Turkmenistan U20
1.60

finishing

Uzbekistan U20+0.00on par
Turkmenistan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U20 ↓

Turkmenistan U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U20 or draw
71%
Uzbekistan U20 or Turkmenistan U20
76%
Draw or Turkmenistan U20
53%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U20 wins by 2+
25%
Turkmenistan U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U20 1+ goals
81%
Uzbekistan U20 2+ goals
50%
Uzbekistan U20 3+ goals
24%
Turkmenistan U20 1+ goals
71%
Turkmenistan U20 2+ goals
36%
Turkmenistan U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U20 (draw refunded)
62%
Turkmenistan U20 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U20 at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Turkmenistan U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U20 attack 1.75 + Turkmenistan U20 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.68

Turkmenistan U20 attack 2.00 + Uzbekistan U20 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Uzbekistan U20 scores more
47%
level
24%
Turkmenistan U20 scores more
29%

Uzbekistan U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Uzbekistan U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
V. Drazdurdyyev
6'
A. AmanovOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Uzbekistan U20 1–1 Turkmenistan U20

Uzbekistan U20 and Turkmenistan U20 drew 1-1 in Friendlies on June 12, 2025.

Goals: V. Drazdurdyyev (1'), A. Amanov (6' o.g.).

The match was played at Hisor Central Stadium in Hisor.