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Uzbekistan U18 W vs Tajikistan U18 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Uzbekistan U18 W
Uzbekistan U18 W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tajikistan U18 W
Tajikistan U18 W
11/23/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uzbekistan U18 W52%
×Draw31%
Tajikistan U18 W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U18 W
1.21
Tajikistan U18 W
0.58

Uzbekistan U18 W creates 109% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U18 W
1.75
Tajikistan U18 W
0.67

allows per match

Uzbekistan U18 W
0.50
Tajikistan U18 W
0.67

finishing

Uzbekistan U18 W+0.00on par
Tajikistan U18 W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U18 W ↓

Tajikistan U18 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U18 W or draw
82%
Uzbekistan U18 W or Tajikistan U18 W
69%
Draw or Tajikistan U18 W
48%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U18 W wins by 2+
23%
Tajikistan U18 W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U18 W 1+ goals
70%
Uzbekistan U18 W 2+ goals
34%
Uzbekistan U18 W 3+ goals
12%
Tajikistan U18 W 1+ goals
44%
Tajikistan U18 W 2+ goals
12%
Tajikistan U18 W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U18 W (draw refunded)
74%
Tajikistan U18 W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U18 W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Tajikistan U18 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U18 W attack 1.75 + Tajikistan U18 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tajikistan U18 W attack 0.67 + Uzbekistan U18 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Uzbekistan U18 W scores more
52%
level
31%
Tajikistan U18 W scores more
18%

Uzbekistan U18 W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Uzbekistan U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Uzbekistan U18 W 0–0 Tajikistan U18 W

Uzbekistan U18 W and Tajikistan U18 W drew 0-0 in Friendlies Women on November 23, 2025.