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Uzbekistan U18 W vs Kyrgyzstan U18 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Uzbekistan U18 W
Uzbekistan U18 W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kyrgyzstan U18 W
Kyrgyzstan U18 W
M. Khamidova 77'
Y. Yusupova 65', 43'
11/27/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uzbekistan U18 W40%
×Draw26%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U18 W
1.38
Kyrgyzstan U18 W
1.25

Uzbekistan U18 W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U18 W
1.75
Kyrgyzstan U18 W
2.00

allows per match

Uzbekistan U18 W
0.50
Kyrgyzstan U18 W
1.00

finishing

Uzbekistan U18 W+0.00on par
Kyrgyzstan U18 W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U18 W ↓

Kyrgyzstan U18 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U18 W or draw
66%
Uzbekistan U18 W or Kyrgyzstan U18 W
74%
Draw or Kyrgyzstan U18 W
60%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U18 W wins by 2+
19%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U18 W 1+ goals
75%
Uzbekistan U18 W 2+ goals
40%
Uzbekistan U18 W 3+ goals
16%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W 1+ goals
71%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W 2+ goals
36%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U18 W (draw refunded)
54%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U18 W at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Kyrgyzstan U18 W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U18 W attack 1.75 + Kyrgyzstan U18 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kyrgyzstan U18 W attack 2.00 + Uzbekistan U18 W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Uzbekistan U18 W scores more
40%
level
26%
Kyrgyzstan U18 W scores more
34%

Uzbekistan U18 W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Uzbekistan U18 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Y. Yusupova
65'
Y. Yusupova
77'
M. Khamidova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Uzbekistan U18 W 3–0 Kyrgyzstan U18 W

Uzbekistan U18 W beat Kyrgyzstan U18 W 3-0 in Friendlies Women on November 27, 2025.

Goals: Y. Yusupova (43', 65'), M. Khamidova (77').