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Uzbekistan U17 vs Korea DPR U17 — AFC U17 Asian Cup 2023

Uzbekistan U17
Uzbekistan U17advanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Korea DPR U17
Korea DPR U17
4/17/2025AFC U17 Asian CupAFC U17 Asian Cup · Semi-finalsKing Fahd Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uzbekistan U1754%
×Draw22%
Korea DPR U1725%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uzbekistan U17
2.00
Korea DPR U17
1.29

Uzbekistan U17 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uzbekistan U17
2.50
Korea DPR U17
2.25

allows per match

Uzbekistan U17
0.33
Korea DPR U17
1.50

finishing

Uzbekistan U17+0.00on par
Korea DPR U17+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uzbekistan U17 ↓

Korea DPR U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Uzbekistan U17 or draw
75%
Uzbekistan U17 or Korea DPR U17
78%
Draw or Korea DPR U17
46%

Winning margin

Uzbekistan U17 wins by 2+
31%
Korea DPR U17 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Uzbekistan U17 1+ goals
86%
Uzbekistan U17 2+ goals
59%
Uzbekistan U17 3+ goals
32%
Korea DPR U17 1+ goals
72%
Korea DPR U17 2+ goals
37%
Korea DPR U17 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Uzbekistan U17 (draw refunded)
69%
Korea DPR U17 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uzbekistan U17 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Korea DPR U17 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uzbekistan U17 attack 2.50 + Korea DPR U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Korea DPR U17 attack 2.25 + Uzbekistan U17 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Uzbekistan U17 scores more
54%
level
22%
Korea DPR U17 scores more
25%

Uzbekistan U17 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Uzbekistan U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC U17 Asian Cup: Uzbekistan U17 3–0 Korea DPR U17

Uzbekistan U17 beat Korea DPR U17 3-0 in AFC U17 Asian Cup on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at King Fahd Sport City Stadium in Ta'if.