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UWI vs Harbour View — Premier League 2019

UWI
UWI
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Harbour View
Harbour View
11/3/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI34%
×Draw26%
Harbour View40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI
1.26
Harbour View
1.38

Harbour View creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 98 away

creates per match

UWI
1.00
Harbour View
1.02

allows per match

UWI
1.73
Harbour View
1.52

finishing

UWI+0.00on par
Harbour View+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Harbour View →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

UWI or draw
60%
UWI or Harbour View
74%
Draw or Harbour View
66%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+
15%
Harbour View wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals
72%
UWI 2+ goals
36%
UWI 3+ goals
13%
Harbour View 1+ goals
75%
Harbour View 2+ goals
40%
Harbour View 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)
46%
Harbour View (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Harbour View away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Harbour View defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Harbour View attack 1.02 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UWI scores more
34%
level
26%
Harbour View scores more
40%

Harbour View at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Harbour View will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: UWI 2–2 Harbour View

UWI and Harbour View drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at UWI Mona Bowl in Kingston.