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UWI vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

UWI
UWI
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
1/30/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25UWI Mona Bowl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UWI24%
×Draw24%
Arnett Gardens52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWI
1.09
Arnett Gardens
1.72

Arnett Gardens creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 103 away

creates per match

UWI
1.00
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

UWI
1.73
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

UWI+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWI ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UWI or draw
48%
UWI or Arnett Gardens
76%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
76%

Winning margin

UWI wins by 2+
9%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

UWI 1+ goals
66%
UWI 2+ goals
30%
UWI 3+ goals
10%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
82%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
51%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

UWI (draw refunded)
32%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWI at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWI attack 1.00 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + UWI defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

UWI scores more
24%
level
24%
Arnett Gardens scores more
52%

Arnett Gardens at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWI vs Arnett Gardens

Arnett Gardens beat UWI 3-1 in Premier League on January 30, 2020.

The match was played at UWI Mona Bowl in Kingston.