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UWA Nedlands vs Gosnells City — Western Australia State League 1 2024

UWA Nedlands
UWA Nedlands
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Gosnells City
Gosnells City
6/7/2025Western Australia State League 1Western Australia State League 1 · Round 11UWA Sports Park A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

UWA Nedlands68%
×Draw19%
Gosnells City14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UWA Nedlands
2.27
Gosnells City
0.92

UWA Nedlands creates 147% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

UWA Nedlands
2.28
Gosnells City
0.91

allows per match

UWA Nedlands
0.93
Gosnells City
2.27

finishing

UWA Nedlands+0.00on par
Gosnells City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UWA Nedlands ↓

Gosnells City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UWA Nedlands or draw
86%
UWA Nedlands or Gosnells City
81%
Draw or Gosnells City
32%

Winning margin

UWA Nedlands wins by 2+
44%
Gosnells City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

UWA Nedlands 1+ goals
90%
UWA Nedlands 2+ goals
66%
UWA Nedlands 3+ goals
39%
Gosnells City 1+ goals
60%
Gosnells City 2+ goals
23%
Gosnells City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UWA Nedlands (draw refunded)
83%
Gosnells City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UWA Nedlands at home — creates 2.28, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Gosnells City away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UWA Nedlands attack 2.28 + Gosnells City defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.27

Gosnells City attack 0.91 + UWA Nedlands defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

UWA Nedlands scores more
68%
level
19%
Gosnells City scores more
14%

UWA Nedlands at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "UWA Nedlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UWA Nedlands vs Gosnells City

UWA Nedlands beat Gosnells City 4-3 in Western Australia State League 1 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at UWA Sports Park A in Mt Claremont.