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Uttaradit vs Kasetsart FC — League Cup 2021

Uttaradit
Uttaraditadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
11/27/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uttaradit26%
×Draw25%
Kasetsart FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uttaradit
1.13
Kasetsart FC
1.63

Kasetsart FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Uttaradit
1.75
Kasetsart FC
1.25

allows per match

Uttaradit
2.00
Kasetsart FC
0.50

finishing

Uttaradit+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uttaradit ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Uttaradit or draw
51%
Uttaradit or Kasetsart FC
75%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
74%

Winning margin

Uttaradit wins by 2+
10%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Uttaradit 1+ goals
68%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
31%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
11%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
80%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
48%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Uttaradit (draw refunded)
35%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uttaradit at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uttaradit attack 1.75 + Kasetsart FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Kasetsart FC attack 1.25 + Uttaradit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Uttaradit scores more
26%
level
25%
Kasetsart FC scores more
49%

Kasetsart FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kasetsart FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uttaradit vs Kasetsart FC

Uttaradit beat Kasetsart FC 2-1 in League Cup on November 27, 2025.