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Uttaradit vs Chiangmai FC — League Cup 2021

Uttaradit
Uttaradit
FT
0 – 2
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
10/19/2022League CupLeague Cup · Play-offsUttaradit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Uttaradit22%
×Draw18%
Chiangmai FC60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uttaradit
1.71
Chiangmai FC
2.83

Chiangmai FC creates 65% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Uttaradit
1.75
Chiangmai FC
3.67

allows per match

Uttaradit
2.00
Chiangmai FC
1.67

finishing

Uttaradit+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uttaradit ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Uttaradit or draw
40%
Uttaradit or Chiangmai FC
82%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
78%

Winning margin

Uttaradit wins by 2+
10%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Uttaradit 1+ goals
82%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
51%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
24%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
94%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
77%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Uttaradit (draw refunded)
27%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uttaradit at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uttaradit attack 1.75 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chiangmai FC attack 3.67 + Uttaradit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Uttaradit scores more
22%
level
18%
Chiangmai FC scores more
60%

Chiangmai FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uttaradit vs Chiangmai FC

Chiangmai FC beat Uttaradit 2-0 in League Cup on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Uttaradit Stadium in Uttaradit.