Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uttaradit vs BG Pathum United — League Cup 2021

Uttaradit
Uttaradit
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
BG Pathum United
BG Pathum Unitedadvanced
12/28/2025League CupLeague Cup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Uttaradit21%
×Draw19%
BG Pathum United61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uttaradit
1.38
BG Pathum United
2.46

BG Pathum United creates 78% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Uttaradit
1.75
BG Pathum United
2.93

allows per match

Uttaradit
2.00
BG Pathum United
1.00

finishing

Uttaradit+0.00on par
BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uttaradit ↓

BG Pathum United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Uttaradit or draw
39%
Uttaradit or BG Pathum United
81%
Draw or BG Pathum United
79%

Winning margin

Uttaradit wins by 2+
9%
BG Pathum United wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Uttaradit 1+ goals
75%
Uttaradit 2+ goals
40%
Uttaradit 3+ goals
16%
BG Pathum United 1+ goals
91%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
70%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Uttaradit (draw refunded)
25%
BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uttaradit at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 2.93, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uttaradit attack 1.75 + BG Pathum United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

BG Pathum United attack 2.93 + Uttaradit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Uttaradit scores more
21%
level
19%
BG Pathum United scores more
61%

BG Pathum United at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uttaradit vs BG Pathum United

BG Pathum United beat Uttaradit 4-0 in League Cup on December 28, 2025.