Utsikten 1–2 Orgryte IS: Result & Stats

Utsikten

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Orgryte IS

8/31/2025

Superettan · Round 21Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Utsikten46%

×Draw24%

Orgryte IS29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtsiktenExpected goals in this matchOrgryte IS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.25

Utsikten

1.63

Orgryte IS

1.25

Utsikten creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 122 away

1.79

creates per match

1.29

1.21

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Utsikten

1.79

Orgryte IS

1.29

allows per match

Utsikten

1.21

Orgryte IS

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par

Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Orgryte IS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw

71%

Utsikten or Orgryte IS

76%

Draw or Orgryte IS

54%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+

24%

Orgryte IS wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals

80%

Utsikten 2+ goals

48%

Utsikten 3+ goals

22%

Orgryte IS 1+ goals

71%

Orgryte IS 2+ goals

36%

Orgryte IS 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)

61%

Orgryte IS (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.63

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Utsikten scores more

46%

level

24%

Orgryte IS scores more

29%

Utsikten at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff