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Utsikten vs Norrby IF — Superettan 2026

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norrby IF
Norrby IF
8/14/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 19Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Utsikten49%
×Draw24%
Norrby IF27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
1.68
Norrby IF
1.17

Utsikten creates 44% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 84 away

creates per match

Utsikten
1.79
Norrby IF
1.12

allows per match

Utsikten
1.21
Norrby IF
1.56

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
Norrby IF+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Norrby IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
73%
Utsikten or Norrby IF
76%
Draw or Norrby IF
51%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
26%
Norrby IF wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
81%
Utsikten 2+ goals
50%
Utsikten 3+ goals
24%
Norrby IF 1+ goals
69%
Norrby IF 2+ goals
33%
Norrby IF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
65%
Norrby IF (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Norrby IF away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.56 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Norrby IF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Norrby IF attack 1.12 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Utsikten scores more
49%
level
24%
Norrby IF scores more
27%

Utsikten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utsikten vs Norrby IF

Utsikten and Norrby IF drew 1-1 in Superettan on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.