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Utsikten vs IF Elfsborg — Svenska Cupen 2019

Utsikten
Utsikten
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
2/28/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Utsikten9%
×Draw15%
IF Elfsborg75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utsikten
0.78
IF Elfsborg
2.54

IF Elfsborg creates 226% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

creates per match

Utsikten
0.86
IF Elfsborg
2.36

allows per match

Utsikten
2.71
IF Elfsborg
0.71

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par
IF Elfsborg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw
25%
Utsikten or IF Elfsborg
85%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
91%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+
3%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals
54%
Utsikten 2+ goals
18%
Utsikten 3+ goals
4%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
92%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
72%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)
11%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 0.86 + IF Elfsborg defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

IF Elfsborg attack 2.36 + Utsikten defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Utsikten scores more
9%
level
15%
IF Elfsborg scores more
75%

IF Elfsborg at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "IF Elfsborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utsikten vs IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg beat Utsikten 4-1 in Svenska Cupen on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.