Utsikten 0–0 Gefle IF: Result & Stats | Superettan

Utsikten

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gefle IF

11/3/2023

Superettan · Round 29Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Utsikten55%

×Draw23%

Gefle IF22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtsiktenExpected goals in this matchGefle IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Utsikten

1.79

Gefle IF

1.04

Utsikten creates 72% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 45 away

1.79

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Utsikten

1.79

Gefle IF

0.87

allows per match

Utsikten

1.21

Gefle IF

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par

Gefle IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

Gefle IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw

78%

Utsikten or Gefle IF

77%

Draw or Gefle IF

45%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+

31%

Gefle IF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals

83%

Utsikten 2+ goals

53%

Utsikten 3+ goals

26%

Gefle IF 1+ goals

65%

Gefle IF 2+ goals

28%

Gefle IF 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)

71%

Gefle IF (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Gefle IF away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.78 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + Gefle IF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gefle IF attack 0.87 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Utsikten scores more

55%

level

23%

Gefle IF scores more

22%

Utsikten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff