Utsikten 1–1 AFC Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Utsikten

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Eskilstuna

10/2/2023

Superettan · Round 25Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Utsikten51%

×Draw24%

AFC Eskilstuna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtsiktenExpected goals in this matchAFC Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.10

Utsikten

1.70

AFC Eskilstuna

1.10

Utsikten creates 55% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 75 away

1.79

creates per match

1.00

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Utsikten

1.79

AFC Eskilstuna

1.00

allows per match

Utsikten

1.21

AFC Eskilstuna

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utsikten+0.00on par

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utsikten ↓

AFC Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Utsikten or draw

75%

Utsikten or AFC Eskilstuna

76%

Draw or AFC Eskilstuna

49%

Winning margin

Utsikten wins by 2+

28%

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Utsikten 1+ goals

82%

Utsikten 2+ goals

51%

Utsikten 3+ goals

24%

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

67%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

30%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Utsikten (draw refunded)

68%

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utsikten at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

AFC Eskilstuna away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utsikten attack 1.79 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.00 + Utsikten defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Utsikten scores more

51%

level

24%

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

25%

Utsikten at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Utsikten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff