UTS Rabat 3–2 Youssoufia Berrechid: Result & Stats

UTS Rabat

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Youssoufia Berrechid

3/1/2024

Botola Pro · Round 22Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat46%

×Draw27%

Youssoufia Berrechid27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTS RabatExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.02

UTS Rabat

1.42

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.02

UTS Rabat creates 39% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

1.12

creates per match

0.95

1.08

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

UTS Rabat

1.12

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

UTS Rabat

1.08

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw

73%

UTS Rabat or Youssoufia Berrechid

73%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

54%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

22%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

76%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

41%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

17%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

64%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

27%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

63%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

UTS Rabat scores more

46%

level

27%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

27%

UTS Rabat at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff