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UTS Rabat vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
9/20/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 3Stade du 18 novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

UTS Rabat32%
×Draw29%
Wydad AC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.04
Wydad AC
1.20

Wydad AC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 120 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.12
Wydad AC
1.32

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.08
Wydad AC
0.96

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
60%
UTS Rabat or Wydad AC
71%
Draw or Wydad AC
68%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
12%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
9%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
70%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
34%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
44%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.08 · 60 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.96 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.12 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wydad AC attack 1.32 + UTS Rabat defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
32%
level
29%
Wydad AC scores more
40%

Wydad AC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTS Rabat vs Wydad AC

UTS Rabat and Wydad AC drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du 18 novembre in Khémisset.