UTS Rabat 1–2 Wydad AC: Result & Stats | Botola Pro

UTS Rabat

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wydad AC

T. Bentayeb 37'

B. Sambou 75', 67'

4/15/2023

Botola Pro · Round 23Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

UTS Rabat32%

×Draw29%

Wydad AC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTS RabatExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.17

UTS Rabat

1.04

Wydad AC

1.17

Wydad AC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 114 away

1.15

creates per match

1.27

1.07

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

UTS Rabat

1.15

Wydad AC

1.27

allows per match

UTS Rabat

1.07

Wydad AC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw

61%

UTS Rabat or Wydad AC

71%

Draw or Wydad AC

68%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

12%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

65%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

28%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

9%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

69%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

33%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

45%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.07 · 61 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.94 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.15 + Wydad AC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wydad AC attack 1.27 + UTS Rabat defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UTS Rabat scores more

32%

level

29%

Wydad AC scores more

39%

Wydad AC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wydad AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

27'

37'

55'

57'

58'

H. Benayada← A. El Amloud

58'

S. Bouhra← A. El Hassouni

61'

A. Dairani

67'

B. Sambou

71'

J. Kombous← H. Khaloua

75'

B. Sambou

78'

H. Manaout← A. El Khalej

78'

A. Mourid← O. Nemssaoui

78'

I. Lagrimi← M. Aziz

84'

H. Ait Allal← Z. El Moutaraji

88'

T. El Khalej← M. Chemlal

90'

90+2'

90+7'

90+8'

90+3'

S. El Anabi← Y. Attiat-Allah

UTS

Wydad

32

Motie

35

Zola

22

▼

Amloud

14

▼

Attiat-Al

4

Aboulfath

8

▼

Jaadi

10

▼

Hassouni

6

Daoudi

13

Haimoud

7

▼

Moutaraji

20

⚽2

Sambou

12

Houasli

23

▼

Nemssaoui

25

▼

Aziz

15

▼

Khalej

13

Dairani

8

Harmach

22

▼

Chemlal

11

▼

Khaloua

30

⚽

Bentayeb

21

Lemkadem

10

Zouhzouh

Manager: T. Sektioui

71'▲J. Kombous←▼H. Khaloua

78'▲H. Manaout←▼A. El Khalej

78'▲A. Mourid←▼O. Nemssaoui

78'▲I. Lagrimi←▼M. Aziz

88'▲T. El Khalej←▼M. Chemlal

UTS Rabat substitutes

14Kombous2Manaout5Mourid36Lagrimi26Khalej20Haddad24Asmama28Nakach34Khalifi

Manager: Juan Garrido

57'▲Y. Jabrane←▼R. Jaadi

58'▲H. Benayada←▼A. El Amloud

58'▲S. Bouhra←▼A. El Hassouni

84'▲H. Ait Allal←▼Z. El Moutaraji

90+3'▲S. El Anabi←▼Y. Attiat-Allah

Wydad AC substitutes

5Jabrane3Benayada30Bouhra31Allal24Anabi12Mourid2Moutaraji17Aouk19Khannouss