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UTS Rabat vs Tihad Casablanca — Botola 2 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
2 – 0
Tihad Casablanca
Tihad Casablanca
6/25/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 28Stade de Maroc Telecom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UTS Rabat43%
×Draw28%
Tihad Casablanca30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.32
Tihad Casablanca
1.05

UTS Rabat creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 46 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.47
Tihad Casablanca
0.87

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.23
Tihad Casablanca
1.17

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Tihad Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Tihad Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
70%
UTS Rabat or Tihad Casablanca
72%
Draw or Tihad Casablanca
57%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
20%
Tihad Casablanca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
73%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
38%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
15%
Tihad Casablanca 1+ goals
65%
Tihad Casablanca 2+ goals
28%
Tihad Casablanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
59%
Tihad Casablanca (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Tihad Casablanca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.47 + Tihad Casablanca defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tihad Casablanca attack 0.87 + UTS Rabat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
43%
level
28%
Tihad Casablanca scores more
30%

UTS Rabat at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: UTS Rabat 2–0 Tihad Casablanca

UTS Rabat beat Tihad Casablanca 2-0 in Botola 2 on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Maroc Telecom in Rabat.