UTS Rabat 1–1 Kawkab Marrakech: Result & Stats

UTS Rabat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Kawkab Marrakech

Unknown 45+3'

4/10/2022

Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Prince Moulay EL Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UTS Rabat41%

×Draw29%

Kawkab Marrakech30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UTS RabatExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.00

UTS Rabat

1.21

Kawkab Marrakech

1.00

UTS Rabat creates 21% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

1.47

creates per match

0.77

1.23

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

UTS Rabat

1.47

Kawkab Marrakech

0.77

allows per match

UTS Rabat

1.23

Kawkab Marrakech

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw

70%

UTS Rabat or Kawkab Marrakech

71%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

59%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+

18%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals

70%

UTS Rabat 2+ goals

34%

UTS Rabat 3+ goals

12%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

63%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

26%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)

57%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.95 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.47 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.21

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.77 + UTS Rabat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UTS Rabat scores more

41%

level

29%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

30%

UTS Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff