Utrillas 2–1 Fraga: Result & Stats

Utrillas

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fraga

2/9/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 21Estadio La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Utrillas43%

×Draw28%

Fraga30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtrillasExpected goals in this matchFraga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.06

Utrillas

1.32

Fraga

1.06

Utrillas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 65 away

1.15

creates per match

1.06

1.05

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Utrillas

1.15

Fraga

1.06

allows per match

Utrillas

1.05

Fraga

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrillas+0.00on par

Fraga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrillas ↓

Fraga →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Utrillas or draw

70%

Utrillas or Fraga

72%

Draw or Fraga

57%

Winning margin

Utrillas wins by 2+

20%

Fraga wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Utrillas 1+ goals

73%

Utrillas 2+ goals

38%

Utrillas 3+ goals

15%

Fraga 1+ goals

65%

Fraga 2+ goals

29%

Fraga 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utrillas (draw refunded)

59%

Fraga (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrillas at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

Fraga away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.49 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrillas attack 1.15 + Fraga defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fraga attack 1.06 + Utrillas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Utrillas scores more

43%

level

28%

Fraga scores more

30%

Utrillas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Utrillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff