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Utrillas vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Utrillas
Utrillas
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
3/8/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Utrillas47%
×Draw26%
CDJ Tamarite27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrillas
1.48
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

Utrillas creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 98 away

creates per match

Utrillas
1.15
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

allows per match

Utrillas
1.05
CDJ Tamarite
1.81

finishing

Utrillas+0.00on par
CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrillas ↓

CDJ Tamarite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utrillas or draw
73%
Utrillas or CDJ Tamarite
74%
Draw or CDJ Tamarite
53%

Winning margin

Utrillas wins by 2+
23%
CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Utrillas 1+ goals
77%
Utrillas 2+ goals
43%
Utrillas 3+ goals
19%
CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
65%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
28%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Utrillas (draw refunded)
64%
CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrillas at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrillas attack 1.15 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Utrillas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Utrillas scores more
47%
level
26%
CDJ Tamarite scores more
27%

Utrillas at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Utrillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Utrillas 2–3 CDJ Tamarite

CDJ Tamarite beat Utrillas 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 8, 2026.