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Utrillas vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Utrillas
Utrillas
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 3Estadio La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Utrillas39%
×Draw30%
Caspe31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrillas
1.13
Caspe
0.97

Utrillas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 83 away

creates per match

Utrillas
1.15
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Utrillas
1.05
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Utrillas+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrillas ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Utrillas or draw
69%
Utrillas or Caspe
70%
Draw or Caspe
61%

Winning margin

Utrillas wins by 2+
16%
Caspe wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Utrillas 1+ goals
68%
Utrillas 2+ goals
31%
Utrillas 3+ goals
11%
Caspe 1+ goals
62%
Caspe 2+ goals
25%
Caspe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Utrillas (draw refunded)
56%
Caspe (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrillas at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrillas attack 1.15 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Caspe attack 0.89 + Utrillas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Utrillas scores more
39%
level
30%
Caspe scores more
31%

Utrillas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Utrillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Utrillas 0–1 Caspe

Caspe beat Utrillas 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio La Vega in Utrillas.