Utrillas 1–3 Barbastro: Result & Stats

Utrillas

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Barbastro

Ángel Hernández 85'

M. Sempé 71'

S. Sidibe 46', 37'

10/8/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 5Estadio La Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Utrillas33%

×Draw27%

Barbastro39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtrillasExpected goals in this matchBarbastro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.28

Utrillas

1.16

Barbastro

1.28

Barbastro creates 10% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 59 away

1.15

creates per match

1.51

1.05

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Utrillas

1.15

Barbastro

1.51

allows per match

Utrillas

1.05

Barbastro

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrillas+0.00on par

Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrillas ↓

Barbastro →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Utrillas or draw

61%

Utrillas or Barbastro

73%

Draw or Barbastro

67%

Winning margin

Utrillas wins by 2+

14%

Barbastro wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Utrillas 1+ goals

69%

Utrillas 2+ goals

32%

Utrillas 3+ goals

11%

Barbastro 1+ goals

72%

Barbastro 2+ goals

37%

Barbastro 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Utrillas (draw refunded)

46%

Barbastro (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrillas at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrillas attack 1.15 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Utrillas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Utrillas scores more

33%

level

27%

Barbastro scores more

39%

Barbastro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barbastro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Sidibe

46'

S. Sidibe

60'

Diego Tena← Fernando Casero

60'

Adrián Redondo← Mele

60'

Jorge López← Matar

65'

Nenad Stokic← Adán Sebastián

65'

Hugo Bautista← Oscar Pérez

71'

M. Sempé

72'

Ángel Hernández← Jorge López

76'

Aaron Bocardo← S. Sidibe

85'

Ángel Hernández

88'

Lucas Elbaile← José Val

88'

Juan Solana← Fernando Arnedillo

88'

Diego Torres← Quique Rausell

Utrillas

Barbastro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pitu Lerga

60'▲Diego Tena←▼Fernando Casero

60'▲Adrián Redondo←▼Mele

60'▲Jorge López←▼Matar

65'▲Nenad Stokic←▼Adán Sebastián

72'▲Ángel Hernández←▼Jorge López

Utrillas substitutes

TenaRedondoLópezStokicHernández

Manager: Josete

65'▲Hugo Bautista←▼Oscar Pérez

76'▲Aaron Bocardo←▼S. Sidibe

88'▲Lucas Elbaile←▼José Val

88'▲Juan Solana←▼Fernando Arnedillo

88'▲Diego Torres←▼Quique Rausell

Barbastro substitutes

BautistaBocardoElbaileSolanaTorres

Match Recap: Utrillas vs Barbastro

Barbastro beat Utrillas 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 8, 2022.

Goals: S. Sidibe (37', 46'), M. Sempé (71'), Ángel Hernández (85').

The match was played at Estadio La Vega in Utrillas.

Utrillas vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Utrillas vs Barbastro