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Utrillas vs Atlético Monzón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Utrillas
Utrillas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Monzón
Atlético Monzón
10/19/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Utrillas36%
×Draw29%
Atlético Monzón36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrillas
1.14
Atlético Monzón
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 115 away

creates per match

Utrillas
1.15
Atlético Monzón
1.22

allows per match

Utrillas
1.05
Atlético Monzón
1.13

finishing

Utrillas+0.00on par
Atlético Monzón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrillas ↓

Atlético Monzón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Utrillas or draw
64%
Utrillas or Atlético Monzón
71%
Draw or Atlético Monzón
64%

Winning margin

Utrillas wins by 2+
15%
Atlético Monzón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Utrillas 1+ goals
68%
Utrillas 2+ goals
32%
Utrillas 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Monzón 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Monzón 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Monzón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utrillas (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Monzón (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrillas at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

Atlético Monzón away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.13 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrillas attack 1.15 + Atlético Monzón defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atlético Monzón attack 1.22 + Utrillas defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Utrillas scores more
36%
level
29%
Atlético Monzón scores more
36%

Utrillas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Utrillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Utrillas 1 – 2 Atlético Monzón

Atlético Monzón beat Utrillas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 19, 2025.