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Utrera vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
4/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal de Vistalegre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Utrera59%
×Draw23%
Los Barrios18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.81
Los Barrios
0.88

Utrera creates 106% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
82%
Utrera or Los Barrios
77%
Draw or Los Barrios
41%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
34%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
84%
Utrera 2+ goals
54%
Utrera 3+ goals
27%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
59%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
22%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
77%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Utrera scores more
59%
level
23%
Los Barrios scores more
18%

Utrera at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Utrera vs Los Barrios

Utrera beat Los Barrios 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Vistalegre in Utrera.