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Utrera vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Utrera58%
×Draw24%
Inter Sevilla18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.72
Inter Sevilla
0.83

Utrera creates 107% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
82%
Utrera or Inter Sevilla
76%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
42%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
33%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
82%
Utrera 2+ goals
51%
Utrera 3+ goals
25%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
56%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
20%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
77%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Utrera scores more
58%
level
24%
Inter Sevilla scores more
18%

Utrera at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Utrera 1–1 Inter Sevilla

Utrera and Inter Sevilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Utrera.