Utrera 3–2 Ceuta II: Result & Stats

Utrera

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ceuta II

J. Diaz 59'

A. Jesus 57'

D. Liduena Alonso 11'

Unknown 16', 13'

11/1/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Utrera53%

×Draw26%

Ceuta II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtreraExpected goals in this matchCeuta II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.83

Utrera

1.51

Ceuta II

0.83

Utrera creates 82% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 82 away

1.62

creates per match

0.82

0.85

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Utrera

1.62

Ceuta II

0.82

allows per match

Utrera

0.85

Ceuta II

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par

Ceuta II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Ceuta II →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Utrera or draw

79%

Utrera or Ceuta II

74%

Draw or Ceuta II

47%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+

27%

Ceuta II wins by 2+

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals

78%

Utrera 2+ goals

44%

Utrera 3+ goals

19%

Ceuta II 1+ goals

56%

Ceuta II 2+ goals

20%

Ceuta II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)

72%

Ceuta II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Ceuta II away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Ceuta II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.51

Ceuta II attack 0.82 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Utrera scores more

53%

level

26%

Ceuta II scores more

21%

Utrera at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Liduena Alonso

13'

16'

57'

A. Jesus

59'

J. Diaz

Utrera

Ceuta

Manager: Miguel Ángel Montoya

Manager: Perita