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Utrera vs Cabecense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Utrera
Utrera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cabecense
Cabecense
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 20Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Utrera62%
×Draw23%
Cabecense14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrera
1.71
Cabecense
0.67

Utrera creates 155% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 47 away

creates per match

Utrera
1.62
Cabecense
0.49

allows per match

Utrera
0.85
Cabecense
1.79

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par
Cabecense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Cabecense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Utrera or draw
86%
Utrera or Cabecense
77%
Draw or Cabecense
38%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+
36%
Cabecense wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals
82%
Utrera 2+ goals
51%
Utrera 3+ goals
24%
Cabecense 1+ goals
49%
Cabecense 2+ goals
15%
Cabecense 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)
81%
Cabecense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Cabecense away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Cabecense defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Cabecense attack 0.49 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Utrera scores more
62%
level
23%
Cabecense scores more
14%

Utrera at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Utrera 3–0 Cabecense

Utrera beat Cabecense 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan Bosco in Sevilla.