Utrera 3–1 Atlético Espeleño: Result & Stats

Utrera

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Espeleño

2/18/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 22Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Utrera58%

×Draw23%

Atlético Espeleño19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtreraExpected goals in this matchAtlético Espeleño

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.89

Utrera

1.76

Atlético Espeleño

0.89

Utrera creates 98% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 49 away

1.62

creates per match

0.92

0.85

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Utrera

1.62

Atlético Espeleño

0.92

allows per match

Utrera

0.85

Atlético Espeleño

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Atlético Espeleño →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Utrera or draw

81%

Utrera or Atlético Espeleño

77%

Draw or Atlético Espeleño

42%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+

33%

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals

83%

Utrera 2+ goals

52%

Utrera 3+ goals

26%

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

59%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

22%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)

75%

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.76

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Utrera scores more

58%

level

23%

Atlético Espeleño scores more

19%

Utrera at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff