Utrera vs Arcos: Preview & Prediction

Utrera

CANC

22:00

Arcos

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 37Estadio San Juan Bosco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Utrera57%

×Draw25%

Arcos18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UtreraExpected goals in this matchArcos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.78

Utrera

1.62

Arcos

0.78

Utrera creates 108% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 28 away

1.62

creates per match

0.71

0.85

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Utrera

1.62

Arcos

0.71

allows per match

Utrera

0.85

Arcos

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Utrera+0.00on par

Arcos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrera ↓

Arcos →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Utrera or draw

82%

Utrera or Arcos

75%

Draw or Arcos

43%

Winning margin

Utrera wins by 2+

31%

Arcos wins by 2+

Team goals

Utrera 1+ goals

80%

Utrera 2+ goals

48%

Utrera 3+ goals

22%

Arcos 1+ goals

54%

Arcos 2+ goals

18%

Arcos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Utrera (draw refunded)

76%

Arcos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Utrera at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.85 · 94 matches

Arcos away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Utrera attack 1.62 + Arcos defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Arcos attack 0.71 + Utrera defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Utrera scores more

57%

level

25%

Arcos scores more

18%

Utrera at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Utrera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Utrera vs Arcos — Match Preview

Utrera face Arcos on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Utrera host Arcos at Estadio San Juan Bosco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Utrera vs Arcos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Utrera vs Arcos — Match Preview