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Utrecht vs Willem II — Eredivisie 2026

Utrecht
Utrecht
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Willem II
Willem II
5/1/2021EredivisieEredivisie · Round 31Stadion Galgenwaard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Utrecht54%
×Draw22%
Willem II23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Utrecht
1.90
Willem II
1.17

Utrecht creates 62% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 85 away

creates per match

Utrecht
1.76
Willem II
1.22

allows per match

Utrecht
1.13
Willem II
2.05

finishing

Utrecht+0.00on par
Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Utrecht ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Utrecht or draw
77%
Utrecht or Willem II
78%
Draw or Willem II
46%

Winning margin

Utrecht wins by 2+
31%
Willem II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Utrecht 1+ goals
85%
Utrecht 2+ goals
56%
Utrecht 3+ goals
29%
Willem II 1+ goals
69%
Willem II 2+ goals
33%
Willem II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Utrecht (draw refunded)
70%
Willem II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Utrecht at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.05 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Utrecht attack 1.76 + Willem II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Willem II attack 1.22 + Utrecht defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Utrecht scores more
54%
level
22%
Willem II scores more
23%

Utrecht at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Utrecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Utrecht 3–2 Willem II

Utrecht beat Willem II 3-2 in Eredivisie on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Galgenwaard in Utrecht.